A $20 Billion Warning

 

The world woke up to a sobering reality this week. A landmark study presented at the European Geosciences Union meeting in Vienna has estimated that global warming-fueled heat and drought are already causing annual crop losses exceeding 160 billion by 2100 if emissions are not slashed. The research, led by scientists at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), found that heat extremes and drought have already caused a 3.5 per cent decline in global yields of maize, wheat and soybeans relative to the 1974–2004 baseline.

 

While the financial losses will be greatest for large producers such as the United States, the impacts will be felt most acutely in the lowest-income countries, where the majority of the population depends on farming for survival. “If you look at the least-developed countries in Africa, the impact is much bigger,” warned Yi Ling Hwong of IIASA. “This could lead to social unrest and increased migration”.

 

For India — a nation where agriculture still supports over half the population and employs nearly half the workforce — this is not a distant threat. It is already happening. And nowhere is this crisis more visible, more devastating, and more urgent than in the fragile Himalayan ecosystems of Jammu and Kashmir.

 

India at the Epicentre of the Climate Crisis

 

India is among five countries in Asia and the Pacific where the agriculture sector faces consistently “high risk” from rising temperatures, according to a November 2025 report by the UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP). The risks — reduced crop yields, lower livestock productivity, declining labour capacity and deepening rural poverty traps — remain high under both low- and high-emissions scenarios.

 

The numbers paint a grim picture. In 2025, large parts of India saw deficient rains and crop losses, particularly in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Maharashtra. Scientists now fear that such shortfalls could soon become chronic. Last year was officially India’s hottest year on record, and 2025 has offered little relief. With temperatures crossing 50°C in parts of the country and flash floods submerging entire districts, the monsoon’s predictability — long the backbone of India’s agricultural sector — is breaking down.

 

Over 80 per cent of India’s districts are now classified as vulnerable to extreme weather events. States like Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand are facing more frequent cloudbursts, while southern regions swing between droughts and floods. According to the India Meteorological Department, 2024 was India’s warmest year since records began in 1901. The Centre for Science and Environment documented that the country experienced extreme weather events on 322 days last year.

 

The economic toll is staggering. A single flood event in Punjab in 2025 caused estimated losses of ₹7,500 crore for rice crops alone. Climate change-induced agricultural losses are now impacting India’s GDP every year, weakening rural consumption and increasing inflation volatility.

 

Jammu and Kashmir: A Living Laboratory of Climate Change

 

“Jammu and Kashmir is a living laboratory of climate change,” declared Minister Sharma earlier this year. “Our response must be immediate, locally relevant and science-based”. The statement could not be more apt. Nestled in the western Himalayas, the Union Territory is one of the most climate-vulnerable regions in India — and its agriculture is collapsing under the weight of a warming world.

 

A study spanning five decades (1974–2024) examining snow water equivalent, snow cover and temperature in Jammu and Kashmir found a steady warming trend of 0.0016°C per year, accelerating snowmelt, shortening snow cover duration and reducing streamflow during critical agricultural periods. Snowfall across the north-western Himalayas decreased by 25 per cent in the five years preceding 2025 compared with the 40-year average. Glaciers in the Himalayas are melting rapidly, threatening water availability for rivers, irrigation and hydroelectric projects.

 

The consequences are immediate and devastating. Warmer winters trigger premature blooming in apple orchards, exposing crops to damaging late frosts. Hydropower generation becomes less predictable as reservoir inflows fluctuate, while groundwater recharge slows. “Prime paddy fields are turning into residential colonies, fertile soil disappears beneath commercial complexes, and agricultural land becomes highway corridors,” reports the Kashmir Observer.

 

Jammu and Kashmir recorded 2,863 extreme weather events between 2010 and 2022, according to a NITI Aayog report. From cloudbursts and flash floods to hailstorms and windstorms, the Union Territory has witnessed a spate of extreme weather events mirroring a broader pattern of increasingly erratic weather across the country. What has particularly concerned weather experts is the increasing occurrence of cloudburst-like events beyond their traditional hotspots in Jammu’s mountainous districts. While such incidents have historically been associated with areas such as Doda, Kishtwar and Ramban, meteorologists have recently reported similar high-intensity rainfall events in parts of Kashmir as well.

 

The Apple Economy: Kashmir’s ₹15,000-Crore Gamble

 

No sector has been hit harder than horticulture — and no crop symbolises the crisis more poignantly than the apple.

 

Jammu and Kashmir grows more apples than any other region in India, producing over 20 lakh metric tonnes annually and accounting for the bulk of India’s domestic apple output. The horticulture sector provides livelihoods to around 35 lakh people and supports nearly seven lakh families across the Union Territory. Kashmir produces approximately 75 per cent of India’s apples, and the horticulture sector supports nearly 3.5 million people directly and indirectly.

 

But the orchards now sit in a fragile balance, exposed to hailstorms, heatwaves and increasingly snowless winters that can wipe out a season’s labour. These climate shocks are beginning to unravel Kashmir’s ₹15,000-crore fruit economy, trapping apple growers in a cycle of rising input costs and recurring losses.

 

The science is damning. Research from the TERI School of Advanced Studies shows that for apples, a 1°C rise in summer temperature reduces yields by 6.10% , and a 1% increase in autumn relative humidity decreases yields by 1.97%. Baramulla district shows the highest vulnerability, with a staggering 19.16% yield reduction per 1°C increase.

 

This season has been particularly brutal. Across Shopian, Kulgam, Pulwama and parts of Bandipora, repeated hailstorms over the past several weeks have battered young fruit, shredded leaves and damaged branches at a critical stage of crop development. Growers say the storms have become alarmingly frequent, striking with a ferocity they cannot recall from earlier years.

 

“This year has been unprecedented. I have never seen hailstorms this intense in Kashmir,” said Javed Ahmad Bhat, president of the District Fruit Growers Association, Pulwama. “The orchards have suffered between 50 and 70 per cent losses due to multiple hailstorm spells. The production this year will definitely be hit”.

 

The initial assessment by the horticulture department has estimated an 80-90 per cent loss of apples in Shopian district in a single hailstorm. Reports from across the apple belt, including Shopian and Kulgam, indicate crop failures of up to 70 per cent, resulting in estimated losses of ₹6,000-7,000 crore.

 

In 2025 alone, floods and transport disruptions caused losses estimated at ₹600-700 crore for Kashmir’s apple industry. Torrential rains and sudden floods battered the Valley just as harvest season peaked, severing key transport routes. With the Jammu–Srinagar highway closed by landslides and the alternative Mughal Road proving unreliable, truckers were stranded for days on end. Their cargo of apples — perishable, high-value and time-sensitive — began to rot in transit, erasing months of painstaking cultivation.

 

A crop that once fetched around ₹1,600 per box now struggles to command half that amount. “The apples struck by hailstorms become lower-grade fruit,” explained Bhat. “Farmers often cannot even recover the costs of packaging and transportation because prices fall sharply. Many are forced to leave the damaged fruit”.

 

“Earlier, hailstorms occurred once in a season or in isolated pockets,” said Haji Ghulam Ahmad Dar, a fruit trader associated with the Pulwama fruit mandi. “Now we are seeing repeated spells. In many apple-growing areas of south Kashmir, especially Shopian, the destruction has been widespread. Some orchards have suffered 70 to 80 per cent damage”.

 

The Vanishing Crown: Jammu’s Mango Economy in Crisis

 

While Kashmir’s apple crisis has dominated headlines, a parallel and equally alarming catastrophe is unfolding in the subtropical plains of the Jammu region — the slow, steady collapse of the mango economy. And this year, the unthinkable has happened: local mangoes have all but vanished from the market.

 

June in the Dogra heartland has traditionally been a season of celebration — the air saturated with the heady fragrance of ripening mangoes, the emerald canopies of ancient groves sagging under the weight of golden fruit. But in 2026, a walk through the traditional orchards of Jammu, Samba, Kathua, Udhampur, Reasi and Rajouri reveals a haunting emptiness. The mango trees are largely barren. The vibrant heaps of ‘Sanduri’ and ‘Sounfi’ — indigenous varieties that once defined the summer landscape — are nowhere to be seen. This is not a mere crop shortfall; it is a cultural and economic tragedy.

 

The primary culprit is the shifting climate. Mango trees require a specific temperature window for flowering (Manjar). This year, an unprecedented early heatwave in March, followed by erratic weather patterns, disrupted this critical phase. When blossoms turned into tender young fruits, extreme heat caused farmers to lose more than half their expected yield. Compounding the crisis, freak pre-monsoon hailstorms battered the region, knocking the remaining fruit from the branches. In the Samba and Kathua districts, severe hailstorms and high-speed winds in May 2026 caused 40-50 per cent damage to mango orchards and standing crops.

 

The official data underscores the severity. According to the Jammu and Kashmir Department of Horticulture, mango production in the Union Territory stood at 31,351 tonnes in 2025, a marginal increase from 30,808 tonnes in 2024. But these aggregate figures mask a deeper crisis: the steady erosion of local varieties and the catastrophic collapse of the 2026 season. India’s overall mango production has been decimated this year — in some regions, farmers are reporting yields of less than one-tenth of normal production.

 

The impact extends far beyond a single season. Jammu’s mango economy is built upon nearly 80 per cent rainfed horticultural area, making production highly vulnerable to erratic rainfall. Even a brief dry spell during fruit set or maturity can devastate yields and fruit quality. Research has shown that mango is highly sensitive to heat stress: when temperatures exceed the optimal range of 24–30°C, yield declines significantly. The extreme heatwaves of 2024, with temperatures reaching 41–47°C over 25 days, have left lasting damage on sensitive cultivars.

 

Pests are also proliferating in the warming climate. The mango hopper (Amritodus atkinsoni) is posing a substantial and growing danger, causing significant crop damage and financial losses. Warmer conditions are enabling this pest to expand into previously unsuitable regions, compounding the stress on already weakened trees.

 

The loss is not just agricultural — it is genetic. Jammu’s ancient groves once nurtured a stunning diversity: the Sucking Mango (Choonaywala Amb) — small, fibrous yet incredibly sweet — was the common man’s delight; Sanduri and Sounfi were prized for their unique aromas. Today, these indigenous varieties are vanishing. As farmers shift toward high-yielding, market-standard varieties like Dasheri or Safeda, the genetic treasure trove of Jammu is being depleted. The arrival of local mango varieties in the mandis has dropped by over 70 per cent compared to last year, traders report. Prices have skyrocketed for the few fruits available, but the farmers are seeing little of that money — middlemen are capturing the margins.

 

For the mango growers, the economic devastation is immediate. In Kathua district, 62-year-old Ram Lal Sharma stares at his barren orchard with hollow eyes. His family has cultivated mangoes on this land for four generations. “My grandfather planted these trees. They have seen wars, droughts, and floods. But they have never seen a summer like this,” he says, his voice cracking. “The heat came too early, before the flowers could set. Then the hail came and finished whatever was left. We have nothing to harvest this year.” In Samba district, young farmer Vikram Singh has watched his family’s savings evaporate. “We invested in fertilizers, pesticides, and labour. We took loans expecting a good harvest. Now we have no fruit to sell and no way to repay our debts.”

 

The irony is bitter. While crops including mango have been notified for insurance cover under the Restructured Weather Based Crop Insurance Scheme (RWBCIS), implementation has been patchy. Farmers report that claims are riddled with delays, low payouts, and mismatched triggers — the same problems that plague the apple sector. Government initiatives like the Modified High-Density Plantation (HDP) Programme have extended to sub-tropical fruits, and farmer response has been overwhelming — against a target of 1,300 hectares in 2024-25, applications were received for over 7,000 hectares. But for those whose ancient groves have been decimated this year, these long-term solutions offer little immediate comfort.

 

The mango is not just a fruit in Jammu — it is the “special gift” of nature, the “amber crown of the Dogras” , a symbol of prosperity, and a generational bridge connecting the past to the future. Its disappearance from the market this year is not just an economic loss — it is a cultural tragedy that demands urgent, focused policy attention before the amber crown fades forever.

 

Beyond Apples: A Multi-Crop Catastrophe

 

The crisis extends far beyond apples and mangoes. Kashmir’s agrarian economy — anchored by apple orchards, saffron fields and walnut groves — is under increasing stress due to climate-induced phenological shifts.

 

Saffron, one of the world’s most valuable and climate-sensitive crops, is facing existential collapse. Production has dropped by nearly 70 per cent in two decades, from 15.9 metric tonnes in 1990 to barely 2.6 tonnes in 2023-24. Behind the fading blooms lies a dangerous mix of climate change, corm smuggling and rapid urbanisation. Erratic weather, urban sprawl and rising temperatures are shrinking Kashmir’s saffron fields. Unseasonal warmth, delayed monsoons and winters that fail to deliver the chilling period saffron needs to flower are devastating production. In 2024 and 2025, saffron production in Kashmir hit an all-time low, and production has fallen by 68 per cent in the past 20 years.

 

Vegetable farming, a crucial pillar of the valley’s agri-economy, is also reeling. Irshad Ahmad, a progressive farmer from Pattal village in Pulwama, has been cultivating vegetables for several years. “One of the biggest issues is the absence of a minimum support price. We invest in labour, seeds, fertilisers and pesticides, but at the harvest there’s no guarantee of fair rates,” Ahmad said. The 38-year-old added that the lack of proper irrigation, especially during dry spells, and the impact of climate change are damaging crops more frequently. “There’s no crop insurance scheme that covers our vegetables. We are left to bear the losses when hailstorms or intense rainfall destroy our crops”.

 

The Agriculture Department confirmed that 94 per cent of pulses and 91 per cent of oilseed crops in Jammu and Kashmir were destroyed by unseasonal rains and floods in August and September.

 

Walnuts, almonds and cherries — all significant contributors to the region’s economy — have also suffered. In 2023, unseasonal rainfall and hailstorms wiped out nearly half of Kashmir’s cherry crop.

 

The Human Face of the Crisis

 

Behind the statistics are real people — farmers who have tended these orchards for generations, watching their livelihoods decay in real time.

 

In Allaiepora village of Pulwama, Khursheed Ahmad Allaie tells this correspondent that the apple growers who once invested heavily in establishing high-density orchards, converting paddy fields into apple farms, now find themselves at a loss. “Global warming has changed everything. Heatwaves bring disease. Hailstorms destroy crop quality. Apples that should be A-grade become C-grade, bringing only losses to growers,” says the 34-year-old while pointing to the scars on his trees, left by last August’s extreme weather.

 

“The gamble that once promised higher yields and faster returns has increasingly become a source of anxiety and debt,” he says, seated near a heap of apples — decayed brown, soft, slick with rot. Without crop insurance, growers like him have little option but to watch their produce spoil, absorbing the losses in silence.

 

Further south, in Katrasoo in Kulgam, Mohammad Yousuf Bhat sets out on the narrow path to his 12-kanal orchard. His family has tended these orchards for nearly 80 years. Each season, he weighs the risks — hailstorms in June and July, sudden heatwaves, snowless winters — against the rising costs of pesticides, labour and irrigation. This year, a hailstorm wiped out nearly half the crop.

 

“Crop insurance is our security. Without it, apple farming is just a gamble,” Bhat says.

 

Ajaz Rashid, a local agri entrepreneur, explains that the impact of severe hailstorms extends far beyond a single season’s harvest. Unlike minor weather-related losses, intense hail can scar branches, damage trunks and weaken entire trees, affecting productivity for years. “The hailstorms we are witnessing now are far more destructive. They damage not only the fruit but also the branches and the plants themselves,” Rashid said.

 

 

[The writers travelled extensively across Kashmir’s apple belt and Jammu’s mango-growing districts over the past month, speaking to farmers, traders, scientists and policymakers to document the unfolding climate crisis in India’s fruit bowl.]